Votes that take place in the middle of a four-year presidential term are referred to as midterm elections. History shows that whichever major political party that is not aligned with the current president of the United States during a midterm vote nearly always gains seats in Congress.
Since President Trump is a Republican, this means that Democrats can be expected to pick up seats based on these historic trends. This year, however, there is a bit of a twist – or at least there is in Florida, where successful efforts to change the boundaries of Florida’s congressional districts has made the upcoming election tougher for several Democrats, including Rep. Darren Soto, the first Member of Congress of Puerto Rican descent elected to Congress from Florida.
The demographic makeup of Soto’s congressional seat changed substantially in the redistricting effort. Soto initially represented a heavily Democratic district, in which Puerto Rican voters made up 23% of all voters — the highest percentage, by far, than any other member of Congress. Soto’s old district was home to more than 208,000 Puerto Rican voters, followed by Rep. Ritchie Neal (D-MA) with roughly 120,000 Puerto Ricans (15.5%) and Rep. Ritchie Torren with about 116,000 Puerto Rican voters (15.4%).
Soto’s new congressional district not only hands him a Republican district, where 58% of voters backed President Trump in 2024 and 53% supported the President in 2020, but also splits his Puerto Rican voters among several of the new Florida congressional districts.
The new map initially appeared to be a death knell to Soto, but Soto has emerged as a formidable political force and is now polling even with his Republican challenger.
Overall, consistent with many political observers today, the Economist’s prediction model says there’s a 92% chance that Democrats can flip the House and a 60% chance for the Senate. This national momentum may very well continue to add wind to the sails of Rep. Darren Soto (D-FL) has he fights to keep his seat in Florida’s newly gerrymandered 9th district.
Florida Redistricting and Puerto Rican Voters
Can Soto hold his seat?
Puerto Rico news source El Nuevo Dia checked with a range of sources to see whether Soto is likely to hold his seat in the House. For example, the Puerto Rico Research Hub at the University of Central Florida co educated a small survey of voters in Soto’s district and found that a candidate’s party wasn’t the most important criterion for voting this year. “Economic issues, inflation, the price of gasoline, are the main issues,” said the Research Hub’s director, Fernando Rivera. Other questions in the survey revealed that 85% were dissatisfied with the direction the United States is heading in and 82% had little or no confidence in their federal representatives. This dissatisfaction could work in Soto’s favor, even in the new Republican sections of the district.
Frederique Vélez III, senior advisor to UnidosUS Action Fund, told El Nuevo Dia that the Republican candidate is likely to be less familiar with the Puerto Rican voters who are not committed to a national party. “We have to find them,” Velez said. “Although some may have supported Trump in the past, they have supported Congressman Soto or are willing to vote for him.” In fact, recent polling found that 71% of Puerto Rican voters would choose to vote for a candidate who, like Soto, supports Puerto Rico statehood.
What difference could the race make for Puerto Rico?
Puerto Rico voters have no say in Florida elections, but the results of the race in the 9th district could affect people living on the Island. Soto, the first person of Puerto Rican heritage to be elected to represent Florida in Congress, is also the only Hispanic representative in the Democrat party in the Florida delegation. He has supported Puerto Rico in terms of disaster assistance, equity in federal benefits, and equality for Puerto Rico through statehood throughout his decade in office.
Dan Green, Soto’s opponent, is a first-time candidate with no voting record, but he has the endorsement of Justin Valez-Hagan, Founder of the Puerto Rican Chamber of Commerce, who says that “His commitment to engaging the Puerto Rican community and understanding the issues that matter most to our families demonstrate his thoughtful leadership that all Floridians deserve.” Green has made no public statements on Puerto Rico. He is a Trump political appointee, having served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy & Force Development at the U.S. Department of Defense during the first Trump administration.
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