Global economy is facing the prospect of another profound shock.

An oil storage facility burns after being hit by Israeli airstrikes in Tehran, Iran, on Sunday, June 15, 2025. (Arash Khamooshi/The New York Times) By PETER S. GOODMAN In the most hopeful scenario for the global economy, the latest war in the Middle East ends within a few weeks. The region continues to produce oil and gas. Shipping resumes in the Strait of Hormuz, preventing a shock to the world’s energy supplies. Fear of inflation subsides. But experts cautioned against any hasty sense of…

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